China exported 4.984 million tons of steel in September 2022, a 1.3% increase year on year; from January to September, China exported 51.209 million tons of steel, a 3.4% decrease year on year. Steel export volume of steel pipes increased from the previous month. According to Eurostat data released on October 19, the final year-on-year value of the eurozone consumer price index (CPI) in September increased to 9.9% from 9.1% in August, lower than the initial value of 10% announced in early October but still the highest in history. The global economic recession signal is reappearing right now. The Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates in the face of high inflation. The negative feedback from high inflation and high-interest rates on aggregate demand is accelerating, and the demand side of the stock market and commodities is under pressure, and it is getting worse. This paper conducts a simple analysis of welded pipe and seamless pipe imports and exports in my country.

The steel export volume of seamless pipes fell slightly this month, but still maintained a high level

According to the most recent customs data, China exported 346,600 tons of welded pipes in September 2022, down 11.31% from the previous month, and its share of domestic welded pipe production fell to 7.39%; imported 10,160 tons of welded pipes, up 4.199% from the previous month, but still at a low level. It decreased by 62.48% when compared to the historical high (2020); the net export of welded pipes was 336,400 tons, an increase of 3.34% from the previous month, and the growth rate has slowed. From January to September, net steel export volume was 2.7411 million tons, a 3.93% year-on-year increase that was still higher than the three-year average.

China's steel export volume of seamless pipes was 565,400 tons in September, up 11.78% month on month and 124.99% year on year; the cumulative steel export volume of seamless pipes from January to September was 3.4833 million tons, up 57.39% year on year. China's seamless steel pipe imports were 8,200 tons in August, down 13.68% month on month and 14.58% year on year; in September, China's seamless pipe imports were 5,000 tons, down 39.02% month on month, and the cumulative imports from January to September were 5,000 tons. The total weight of seamless pipes was 91,100 tons, a 7.13% decrease year on year. The net steel export of seamless pipes in September was 560,400 tons. The steel export volume of oil and natural gas seamless casing increased by 78,972.9 tons compared to August, a month-on-month increase of 57.3%; the steel export volume of oil and natural gas pipeline seamless pipe increased by 9,566.8 tons, a month-on-month increase of 5.4%. Middle Eastern countries are still in high demand for seamless oil pipes, despite the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the Fed's interest rate hike. In the future, they will rely on domestic energy rather than imports from other countries. The reliance on local energy to dominate the international position is becoming increasingly severe.

In terms of variety, the steel export of welded line pipes in September was 88,700 tons, a 1,000-ton increase from the previous month, with the growth rate slowing rapidly, accounting for 25.60% of total steel export; 517,500 tons were exported from January to September. The proportion of the total increased to 18.19%, a 15.82% decrease year on year. Steel exports of welded special-shaped and square rectangular pipes totaled 108,500 tons in September, a decrease of 22,600 tons from the previous month and a 17.21% decrease overall. The proportion of the total amount fell to 34.60%, a 10.43% decrease year on year.

When compared to August, the steel export volume of seamless pipes for geological drill casings, boiler tubes, and other seamless pipes increased by 849.8 tons, decreased by 968.8 tons, and decreased by 34767.2 tons. As can be seen, the demand for seamless pipes for geological drill casings remains high.

China's steel export destinations continue to be primarily concentrated in Southeast Asia and the Middle East. In September, the proportion of welded pipe exports to Asia fell to 48.05%, while steel export volume to Africa increased to 30.01% outside of Asia. Nigeria, the Philippines, Indonesia, Myanmar, Niger, Benin, Peru, Hong Kong, Australia, and Singapore are the main flow areas of China's welded pipes, accounting for 9.62%, 7.82%, and 4.86% of the month's exports, respectively, 4.74%, 3.78%, 3.54%, 3.46%, 3.15%, 2.99%, and 2.96%, the cumulative steel export volume of the aforementioned regions accounted for 46.93% of the monthly steel export volume

The United Arab Emirates and Kuwait are the top two regions in the steel export of seamless pipes, accounting for 15.9% and 8.3% of total steel exports for the month, respectively. Oil and natural gas pipeline seamless pipes and oil and natural gas seamless casings account for 57.3% and 39.7%, respectively, of the month's imports. Among these, the export of oil and natural gas pipeline seamless pipes continues to grow. Sewn pipes accounted for 73% of monthly imports.

The United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Thailand, Oman, and Canada were the main flow areas of China's seamless pipes in September, accounting for 15.9%, 8.3%, 7.4%, 5.9%, and 50% of the month's exports, respectively. The combined steel exports of the aforementioned regions were exported. The volume represented 42.7% of the month's total export volume.